In 2023, the bitcoin rate may drop to $5-10 thousand., analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe. According to them, there are no clear prerequisites for the growth of the value of the main cryptocurrency yet. However if the US Federal Reserve takes measures to stimulate the economy in the middle of the year, the price of the coin could reach $23-25 thousand. In recent days, the rate of the coin began to grow and on January 13 exceeded $19,000 for the first time since November 2022. The main reasons for this are the slowdown in inflation in the United States, the discovery of FTX assets in the amount of $5 billion, as well as the easing of anti-COVID restrictions in China.
Grow up
At the beginning of 2023, the cryptocurrency market became more active. Its capitalization exceeded $900 billion for the first time since November last year. The price of bitcoin also reached a maximum in two months – the cost of the coin increased by 10% in two days and amounted to $19.1 thousand..
Bitcoin has risen in price against the background of the growth of US stock markets and the weakening of the dollar, explained BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. According to him, the value of the coin rose immediately after the release of US inflation data for December. Consumer prices in the country rose by 6.5%, but compared to November, inflation slowed down, then the figure reached 7.1%. This gave hope that the Federal Reserve System would not raise the key rate – therefore, borrowed money would become more accessible and the circle of investors in risky assets would expand, Leonid Delitsyn, an analyst at FG Finam, added.
Photo: Izvestiya/Zurab Javakhadze
Another growth factor was positive news from the FTX bankruptcy court case.said Aleksey Fedorov, Leading Economist at TeleTrade. The discovery of $ 5 billion in the company’s accounts helped to mitigate the negative expectations of a new wave of bankruptcies and increase the attractiveness of cryptocurrency assets, the expert pointed out. Nevertheless, the industry will cope with the consequences of the collapse of FTX for a long time to come, Binance regional director Vladimir Smerkis expects.
Crypto exchange FTX, which was in the top 5 in terms of trading volume, filed for bankruptcy on November 11. At the time of the announcement of FTX’s liquidity problems, users began withdrawing funds en masse. As a result, the company’s debt reached $ 8 billion. The assets of users who did not have time to withdraw money were frozen.
The lifting of anti-covid restrictions in China also played a role., said Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets. This is expected to support global economic growth this year, he explained.
Other cryptocurrencies from the top 10 have risen in price after bitcoin, over the past two days their quotes have grown within 15%. Altcoins, as a rule, grow after the first crypto coin, the AMarkets expert explained. He added that bitcoin shows a trend that other assets are guided by – investors are beginning to acquire other coins, which are also becoming more expensive.
Euphoria will pass
Crypto experts brought Izvestia two scenarios for the development of the digital coin market in 2023. In a positive forecast, the cost of bitcoin can reach $21-25 thousand, and in a negative one – $5-10 thousand.
In the coming year, we can expect fluctuations in the bitcoin rate in the range from $5-8 thousand to $23-25 thousand per coin, expects Alexey Fedorov from TeleTrade. The cryptocurrency market has not yet experienced a cyclical crisis, and it is this type of global economic downturn that we are currently witnessing. therefore there is a possibility of a fall in the rate of the main cryptocurrency to $ 5-8 thousand in the first quarter of this year, explained the expert. According to him, in such a scenario, the number of new bankruptcies in the industry, especially in the mining sector, will increase.
As for growth, its parameters will depend entirely on the timing and scale of the Fed’s supportive measures.Alexey Fedorov continued. In the fourth quarter, bitcoin will be able to rise to $23-25 thousand per coin if inflation allows the US regulator to start stimulating the economy in mid-2023, the analyst concluded.
Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic
The euphoria that is associated with Bitcoin growth factors may be temporary, according to Artem Deev from AMarkets. According to him, no one cancels the Fed’s course to raise rates, which means that investments in risky assets will continue to be less profitable than in US government debt or gold. Most likely, 2023 will be difficult for stock markets, commodity prices and the global economy as a whole – in such conditions, a new round of decline in crypto assets is more likely than a record growth, the expert added.
Bitcoin is unlikely to exceed $22-24 thousand this year, but may well drop to $10-12 thousand., the expert expects. He explained: in addition to the policy of the Fed, the reasons for this may be new problems in the crypto industry, where there is now a massive reduction in staff, as well as increased state regulation of this market in the US and Europe.
Cryptocurrency needs to gain a foothold above the level of $19 thousand – in this case, the path to the $21.5-22.5 thousand zone will open. and it will be possible to talk about the end of the “crypto winter,” Vladislav Antonov from BitRiver emphasized. Further, the goal will be $ 25-30 thousand, and their achievement is quite likely, he believes.
In the near future, the rate of bitcoin may be affected by the lawsuits of regulators against crypto projects, said Leonid Delitsyn from FG Finam. More fundamental factors of possible shifts are inflation indicators, the state of the world economy, the actions of regulators and states. For example, legalization of mining in a number of countries, including Russia, can serve as a growth driverthe analyst noted.
Photo: Izvestiya/Zurab Javakhadze
According to him, the price of coins may also rise as a result of a prolonged economic recession and in the event of the spread of a new strain of the Kraken coronavirus. After the previous fall, the bitcoin exchange rate was recovering for three years, and for a decisive breakthrough, such a global factor as the COVID-19 pandemic was required, followed by trillions of state aid, the expert recalled.
As for investing in cryptocurrencies, experts advise taking risks, but carefully. As Vladislav Antonov noted, it is worth investing only in those projects that are well studied. At the same time, it is better to buy digital assets only with the money that you are ready to completely lose.
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