Michael van de Poppe, head of trading firm Eight, released video reviewin which he predicted the growth of bitcoin to $40 thousand this year.
Macroeconomics and Bitcoin
He made this forecast against the backdrop of regular negative news, according to which inflation in the US again showed its teeth. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) stood at 4.7% against the forecast of 4.3%. Already there were voices that this could lead to another 50 bps rate hike in March (February’s first rate hike in 4 months decreased up to 25 points).
According to the Cryptocurrency Screener Cryptovizorwhich determines the market price of BTC/USD based on the results of trading on the largest spot exchanges, on February 21, Bitcoin peaked at $25,299, then began to fall, as a result of which the price dropped to $22,520 (-11%).
Optimistic Michael
Neither the aggravation of macroeconomic data, nor the pullback of Bitcoin managed to cool the bullish ardor of Van de Poppe. From his point of view, the pronounced bullish divergence on the weekly chart indicates that we have already reached the bottom. What is happening now is just a bounce off the 200-week moving average and consolidation.
The trader is wondering, “Will we hit a new bottom because of the macro news?” and answers it like this:
At the moment there is no recession, but it may start due to the collapse of the debt market and the real estate market. But before that happens, we can go up to $40k as a crisis usually develops 6-12 months after a significant Fed rate hike.
At this stage, sideways movement is most likely, says Van de Poppe. In the worst case, we will fall to the low of the range at $18K, and this drop will be a great investment opportunity.
The trader also drew attention to the news background, indicating that the bull rally will start thanks to China – either due to the lifting of the mining ban, or as a result of the adoption of cryptocurrency in Hong Kong. Van de Poppe is confident that bitcoin is currently the most undervalued asset.
The head of Eight also analyzed the weekly chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. “We bottomed out,” he argues, arguing that the previous all-time high was retested, a double bottom and bullish divergence formed, and the 200-week moving average was restored. So, once the $670 billion level is broken, we could skyrocket to $1.2 trillion or even higher.
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