Inflation rates in the United States are deteriorating. If this continues, then Bitcoin will update the bottom.
Came out yesterday January data on the US consumer price index (CPI), which turned out to be worse than expected: 6.4% instead of the forecasted 6.2%, which is only 0.1% better compared to 6.5% in December.
Bitcoin responded to the news with a paradoxical rise. According to the Cryptocurrency Screener Cryptovizorwhich determines the market price of BTC/USD based on the results of trading on the largest spot exchanges, the asset rose to $22,682 at the time of publication and thus tested the 50-half-day moving average from below.
At the same time, a “death cross” was formed on the weekly chart, which the Hash Telegraph warned about in December last year. At that time, analysts unanimously predicted $11-14 thousand in the first quarter of 2023.
Since then ($17,000), bitcoin has risen noticeably, and the mood has changed. Today the head of trading firm Eight Michael van de Poppe (Michaël van de Poppe) wrote:
People are in fear because of the weekly death cross. Look, it’s based on historical events only. The entire bear market of last year led to this cross. The best thing to do about this is to go long rather than short.
Apparently, Van de Poppe does not attach much importance to the lessons of the past, and meanwhile, the weekly death cross has never been seen in the history of bitcoin.
The cross of death is a technical analysis pattern in which the lower moving average crosses down the older moving average – in this case, we are talking about the 50- and 200-week MA. The pattern is considered a strong bearish signal (it should be noted that this view is being questioned by some analysts).
Actual death cross attracts attention to the weekly timeframe. Bitcoin tested the 2017 high (about $20,000) in September last year and then dropped lower, which means it’s time to return to the top of 2019. A further deterioration in inflation in the United States will lead to a drop in the price of bitcoin to $12,000, where the upper limit of the profile of high trading volumes is located.
Not so long ago, the former head of the BitMEX exchange Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) predicted that in 2023 “Bitcoin will trade at $15,000 or below.” The price of $ 12,000 fits into these ideas.
Are there objective grounds for reducing inflation in the US? Will the global economic crisis end at its very beginning? Has anything positive happened recently on a global scale? It seems to me that all these questions deserve a negative answer.
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